To fully understand the impact of sanctions on Russia, it is essential to consider the historical context and cultural nuances that shape the Russian experience. Life in Russia is often marked by the need to find creative solutions within constraints. The concept of scarcity is embedded in daily life, where limited access to resources—such as food, services, or travel—is a familiar reality. Russians learn to adapt to these restrictions from a young age, viewing them as an inherent aspect of their society.

The transition to a more capitalist economy has introduced a wider variety of goods and services and more significant opportunities for international travel. However, the mentality of constraint still lingers. Although access to products and experiences has increased, it has not fundamentally changed the Russian mindset, shaped by years of dealing with scarcity.

When analyzing the impact of sanctions imposed by Western nations, it is crucial to consider both their intended targets and unintended consequences. These sanctions are often framed as punitive measures against corrupt oligarchs, but they frequently create a spectacle that resonates with many Russians, especially those who feel marginalized. For instance, when an oligarch's yacht is seized, or a bank account is frozen, it is often perceived as a victory for the average Russian, reinforcing a sense of poetic justice.

Rather than igniting widespread dissent against their government, sanctions can instead bolster support for Putin. Many Russians interpret economic pressures as an attack on their national identity. The vilification of Russian elites by Western nations feeds into a narrative that the world is united against them, fostering a rally-around-the-flag effect that strengthens domestic loyalty to leadership in times of crisis. This unintended consequence creates a disconnect between the objectives of sanctions and their actual impact on the Russian populace.

Sanctions have significantly altered the Russian marketplace. While American and European brands have halted their operations, Russian entrepreneurs have quickly filled the gaps, often providing comparable products at appealing prices. The adaptability and resourcefulness of the Russian people enable them to find alternatives, sourcing goods from countries like India and China—nations that have not supported the sanctions. As a result, Russians continue to access products that closely resemble Western brands, sometimes at discounted prices, turning a challenge into an economic opportunity.

A clear example of this phenomenon is found in the fast-food industry. When McDonald's exited the Russian market, local entrepreneurs swiftly introduced alternatives replicating its signature menu. These substitutes met consumer demand and demonstrated how sanctions allowed domestic businesses to thrive in place of international corporations.

In this context, it becomes evident that sanctions, rather than isolating and weakening the Russian regime, may inadvertently strengthen it. The absence of American and European influence allows the Russian government to tighten its control over information further and continue promoting its propaganda narrative, reinforcing a sense of unity against external threats. By portraying foreign sanctions as an unjust act against the Russian people, Putin can further entrench his power.

—Yakov Ananin